Guinea’s junta leader, Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya, is on course for a landslide victory in the country’s first election since the 2021 coup that brought him to power, according to partial results released by electoral authorities.
The General Directorate of Elections said Doumbouya has secured 86.72% of votes counted so far from the 28 December poll, with turnout at just over 80% of the 6.7 million registered voters.
On the streets of Conakry, some residents said the result was no surprise. “My feelings are that I am happy. I know that Doumbouya won. He is our president. And the victory belongs to him,” said Zahra Cherif. Supporters argue that the former special forces commander has delivered improved security and launched long-delayed infrastructure projects since seizing power.
“He did not win simply because he is loved by the people, but because he works,” said Ibrahima Doumbouya, a member of the president-elect’s political movement. “He is doing a good job and today, all Guineans are satisfied with this man’s work.”
Doumbouya campaigned heavily on flagship initiatives such as the Simandou iron ore mega-project, jointly developed with Chinese partners and mining multinational Rio Tinto, which authorities say will generate tens of thousands of jobs and fund broader investments in agriculture, education, transport and health.
But opposition candidate Yéro Baldé of the Democratic Front of Guinea, who currently trails with 6.51% of the vote, has rejected the figures. Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Baldé claimed that in areas where voting took place “without pressure or intimidation,” tally sheets showed him ahead.
“Where citizens can vote freely, without pressure or intimidation, where the vote count reports were drawn up normally, the popular verdict was clear: the people put us in the lead. We will use all legal means to demand that the truth be restored,” he said.
Rights groups and analysts had long warned that a weakened and fragmented opposition, combined with Doumbouya’s tight grip on state institutions and security forces, made his victory highly likely.
The election took place under a new constitution approved in September that scrapped presidential term limits and extended each term from five to seven years, a reform critics say is designed to entrench Doumbouya in power.
Provisional results are expected to be finalised in the coming days and must still be validated by Guinea’s Constitutional Court. If no candidate wins more than 50%, a runoff will be required, though current figures make that scenario unlikely.
Analysts warn that Baldé’s challenge and longstanding grievances over political repression could trigger post-election unrest, especially if opposition claims of fraud are dismissed without transparent review.
