Washington/Seoul — President Donald Trump said he will impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting Nov. 1, 2025 — or earlier if Beijing tightens its export controls on rare earth elements — escalating tensions ahead of a planned Asia trip that included a possible meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
In posts on Truth Social, Trump linked the move directly to China’s curbs on rare earth shipments, calling the measures necessary to protect U.S. supply chains. He also said there was “no reason” to meet Xi during his late-October swing through Malaysia (for the ASEAN summit), Japan, and South Korea, where a bilateral had been penciled in ahead of APEC. The White House stopped short of formally canceling the meeting, saying the schedule remains “under review.”
The tariff threat would more than double existing duties on many Chinese goods and represents one of the most sweeping trade actions against Beijing to date. It also marks the latest bid to counter China’s dominance in rare earths—critical inputs for electric vehicles, defense systems, and consumer electronics—after Beijing tightened export licensing for select minerals earlier this year.
Markets reacted warily, with investors debating whether the ultimatum would stick. Traders revived a tongue-in-cheek strategy dubbed the “TACO” trade—short for “Trump Always Chickens Out” reflecting a view that the president frequently pairs maximalist threats with last-minute compromises. Still, supply-chain and retail stocks with heavy China exposure slipped in after-hours trading, while some domestic industrials and miners ticked higher.
Business groups warned the proposed blanket levy could quickly cascade into higher consumer prices and retaliation from Beijing. Logistics analysts said a sudden 100% tariff would upend holiday-season inventories and complicate just-in-time manufacturing, particularly for electronics and auto components.
Diplomats in Tokyo and Seoul signaled concern that the tariff push could overshadow coordination on North Korea, technology standards, and economic security during Trump’s visit. ASEAN officials, meanwhile, said they hoped Washington and Beijing would use the summit corridor to “lower the temperature.”
Whether the measures take effect may hinge on parallel talks over rare earth access and carve-outs. Past episodes suggest the administration could announce exemptions, staged implementation, or product-level exclusions to blunt the shock. For now, companies are modeling worst-case scenarios, weighing rerouting to third-country production, and stress-testing costs if the tariff lands as advertised.
If enforced on Nov. 1, the tariff would represent a decisive break from prior rounds of targeted duties — and set the tone for U.S.–China economic relations heading into 2026.
