Rebel forces in Syria have seized control of significant territories in the most substantial challenge to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in years.
In the southern region of Deraa, rebels now control over 90% of the area, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). This region, known as the birthplace of the 2011 uprising, holds both symbolic importance and strategic significance due to its proximity to Jordan’s border crossings. Reports suggest a deal was struck for government forces to withdraw, granting military officials safe passage to Damascus. However, these claims remain unverified by independent sources.
In northern Syria, Islamist-led rebels have advanced to the outskirts of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, following recent victories in Aleppo and Hama. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is at the forefront of the offensive. Terrified residents of Homs, including many from Assad’s Alawite minority, have fled the city en masse. HTS claims to have “liberated” villages on Homs’ outskirts, though Russian warplanes have bombed nearby infrastructure to slow the rebels’ progress.
The United Nations estimates that over 370,000 people have been displaced in the north, with more than 820 casualties reported in the past week, including 111 civilians. Civilians trapped in front-line areas face dire conditions with limited access to aid.
Assad’s forces, burdened by low morale, internal corruption, and dwindling resources, are under strain despite a recent 50% pay increase announced by the regime. Key allies Iran and Russia have reaffirmed their support, but both face significant constraints. The Kremlin, focused on the war in Ukraine, has advised its nationals to leave Syria, while Israeli strikes have weakened Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces crucial to Assad’s defense.
Turkey, which supports some rebel factions, has endorsed the offensive, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urging Assad to negotiate with the opposition. Analysts attribute much of the rebels’ success to Ankara’s involvement.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani has sought to rebrand his faction, emphasizing a nationalist agenda and pledging to protect minority communities. In distancing HTS from Islamic State and Al Qaeda, al-Jawlani aims to garner broader domestic and international support for the rebel cause.
The ongoing conflict marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s civil war, raising questions about Assad’s ability to maintain control over critical regions and the potential for new alliances to reshape the country’s future.
