In a dramatic turn of events, Nepal has become the third country in India’s immediate neighbourhood — after Sri Lanka (2022) and Bangladesh (2024) — to witness a violent uprising that has toppled its government. The crisis has triggered alarm bells in New Delhi, which shares deep historic, strategic, and economic ties with the Himalayan nation.
Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli was forced to resign after more than 20 people were killed in protests sparked by a nationwide social media ban. The unrest quickly spiraled into widespread violence as demonstrators stormed parliament and set fire to homes of senior politicians. With a nationwide curfew now in place and the army deployed to restore order, Kathmandu is trying to regain control. However, the situation remains tense.
Just as it was blindsided by the uprisings in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India was reportedly unprepared for the sudden collapse of Oli’s government. His resignation comes barely a week before a planned visit to Delhi, prompting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to convene an emergency cabinet meeting.
“The violence in Nepal is heart-rending… stability, peace and prosperity of Nepal are of utmost importance,” Modi posted on X.
India’s relationship with Nepal is unique in South Asia — the two nations share an open border of over 1,750km. More than 3.5 million Nepalis live or work in India, and 32,000 Gurkha soldiers serve in the Indian army under a special treaty. The two nations are also deeply intertwined culturally and religiously, with thousands of Indian pilgrims visiting Nepal’s Hindu sites annually. Nepal is also heavily dependent on Indian exports, with bilateral trade valued at $8.5 billion.
Experts like Maj Gen (Rtd) Ashok Mehta highlight Nepal’s strategic geography, sitting between India and China. The Western Theatre Command of China lies directly across the border, and disputed areas like Lipulekh Pass remain sensitive issues. With China and India vying for influence, accusations of interference are mounting. During a recent visit to Beijing, Oli raised objections over Sino-Indian trade through Lipulekh, a region Nepal claims.
Analysts believe India must tread carefully, especially with all three major Nepalese parties — including the CPN (UML), Nepali Congress, and CPN (Maoist Centre) — now discredited in the eyes of protesters. Delhi has long maintained ties with all of them.
“They don’t want another Bangladesh-type situation,” says Prof. Sangeeta Thapliyal of JNU, suggesting India should now engage Nepal’s youth, offer educational fellowships, and help expand job opportunities for Nepalis.
Nepal’s upheaval adds to India’s growing diplomatic challenges in the region:
- Bangladesh ties are strained post-Hasina’s ouster.
- Myanmar is in a state of civil war.
- Pakistan relations remain hostile.
- SAARC, South Asia’s regional bloc, is virtually defunct.
“India has taken its eyes off the neighbourhood,” warns Mehta. “For India to fulfill its global ambitions, it must first secure its own backyard.”
