ANTANANARIVO — Madagascar was plunged into fresh political turmoil on Monday after an opposition lawmaker said President Andry Rajoelina had left the country, hours before the presidency announced he would address the nation on state media at 7 p.m. local time (1600 GMT).
The claim that Rajoelina had departed follows a dramatic escalation over the weekend, when soldiers from the elite CAPSAT unit accompanied crowds to a central square in Antananarivo and publicly called for the president and several ministers to step down. CAPSAT — the strategic military formation that helped propel Rajoelina to power as a transitional leader in a 2009 military-backed takeover — later said it had assumed charge of Madagascar’s armed forces.
Rajoelina’s office confirmed only that a speech would be broadcast on state television and radio, without clarifying the president’s whereabouts amid swirling reports he had fled after weeks of anti-government protests led initially by youth groups. “He ran away,” Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, the opposition leader in parliament, said Sunday, asserting the president left after the elite unit’s defection. The assertion could not be independently verified.
The confrontation marks the most serious challenge to Rajoelina since his disputed return to the presidency, and underscores the volatile role of the security services in Madagascar’s politics. CAPSAT’s move to side with demonstrators revived memories of 2009, when the unit’s break with then-president Marc Ravalomanana tipped the balance in Rajoelina’s favor.
Protests have mounted for weeks over economic hardship and governance concerns, with organizers urging a transition and new elections. Saturday’s scenes — uniformed soldiers escorting demonstrators and issuing open calls for resignations — signaled a break from routine crowd control and a direct challenge to the chain of command.
The immediate stakes are whether the broader military, gendarmerie and police leadership rally behind CAPSAT or the presidency, a decision that will shape whether the crisis hardens into a full military takeover or stalls in an institutional standoff. Diplomats and regional bodies are closely watching for signs of curfews, airport closures or other measures that would indicate consolidation of power by one side.
As of Monday evening, authorities had not announced restrictions on movement in the capital. Rajoelina’s expected address is likely to set the tone for the coming days — whether to negotiate, denounce the mutiny, or announce emergency measures.
For now, the country of 30 million faces a brittle calm: a presidency insisting a speech is imminent, an opposition claiming the head of state has bolted, and an elite military unit asserting it is in charge. The next 24–72 hours will be decisive.
