TEHRAN, Iran — Iran is facing a worsening energy imbalance as wartime damage, rising consumption and limited policy choices put fresh pressure on one of the world’s most resource-rich countries.
The strain has become particularly visible in fuel markets. Iranian gasoline production capacity has reportedly slipped from about 115 million litres a day to 110 million litres after strikes on energy facilities, while consumption has risen sharply to around 140 million litres a day. That leaves Tehran facing a widening supply gap at a time when imports are harder, refining capacity is under pressure and public tolerance for price increases is low.
The problem is not limited to gasoline. Iran has long struggled with what analysts describe as structural energy imbalances across gas and electricity. Despite holding some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, the country has faced shortages caused by ageing infrastructure, heavy subsidies, underinvestment, sanctions and rapidly growing domestic demand.
The war has made those weaknesses harder to manage. Attacks on energy infrastructure have disrupted production, while the wider conflict has raised shipping costs and complicated access to equipment, finance and refined fuel imports. Reuters reported that energy and shipping markets have been sharply affected since the Iran conflict began, with tanker and fuel transport costs rising significantly as the Middle East’s role in global supply became more uncertain.
Tehran’s options are politically difficult. Raising fuel prices could reduce demand and ease pressure on state finances, but past increases have triggered unrest. Rationing could preserve supplies but would anger motorists, businesses and transport operators. Importing more fuel would require scarce foreign currency and reliable shipping routes. Expanding refining capacity would take time and outside technology, both constrained by sanctions and conflict.
The government could also try to cut consumption by tightening quotas, restricting non-essential travel or pushing industries to reduce energy use. But those steps risk slowing economic activity at a time when households are already dealing with inflation, shortages and wartime uncertainty.
The crisis also intersects with diplomacy. Iran remains under pressure in talks with the United States over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief and limits on its nuclear programme. Oil prices rose this week as markets waited for Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal aimed at halting the war.
International agencies warn that the broader energy shock could damage economies far beyond Iran. The OECD said prolonged disruption of Middle East energy supplies could push global growth sharply lower and raise inflation, especially in countries dependent on imported fuel.
For Iran, however, the immediate challenge is domestic: how to keep fuel, electricity and gas flowing without triggering deeper economic pain or public anger. The country has vast energy wealth, but the room to manage the current imbalance is narrowing.
