Jerusalem/Cairo — A newly brokered truce between Israel and Hamas has ignited cautious optimism that the two-year war could be winding down, with negotiators saying all remaining hostages from the October 7, 2023 attacks are expected to be freed within days. Border crossings have partly reopened, displaced families are edging home, and diplomats describe a rare window to lock in a longer ceasefire.
Yet the deal’s durability hinges on unresolved issues that cut to the heart of the conflict. Chief among them: who governs Gaza as Israeli forces begin staged pullbacks, and whether Hamas will dismantle its armed wing — a central demand in President Donald Trump’s ceasefire blueprint. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has previously ended truces unilaterally, warned the military campaign would resume if Hamas refuses to disarm. Hamas has signaled willingness to discuss governance arrangements led by Palestinian technocrats, but has not publicly committed to disarmament.
Mediators in Egypt and Qatar are working on a phased plan that couples hostage releases with Israeli withdrawals, expanded humanitarian access, and steps toward a transitional administration in Gaza. Officials say early phases will test whether both sides can honor timelines despite deep mistrust and fluid battlefield realities.
On the ground, the truce is already reshaping daily life: limited aid convoys have increased, some commercial traffic has restarted, and engineers are assessing damage to power, water, and medical infrastructure. Humanitarian agencies caution that months of disruption and widespread destruction mean basic services will take time to restore; unexploded ordnance and damaged hospitals remain acute risks.
Regional capitals are watching closely. A stable ceasefire could ease cross-border flare-ups and unlock broader diplomacy, including potential security guarantees and economic support packages. But a breakdown — triggered by stalled hostage handovers, disputes over prisoner lists, or violations along front lines — could snap the conflict back to open warfare.
For now, the truce has created momentum and a measure of relief. Whether it marks the start of a post-war transition or merely a pause will depend on the coming days: the sequencing of releases and withdrawals, credible mechanisms to police violations, and a consensus — however provisional — on Gaza’s interim governance and the future of Hamas’ arms.
