The World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño conditions could return as early as May to July 2026, with early signals suggesting the event may strengthen in the months that follow, potentially reshaping global weather patterns and adding to already elevated climate risks. The U.N. weather agency said rapid warming of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific is pointing to a likely shift from the current neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system.
WMO climate prediction chief Wilfran Moufouma-Okia said there is growing confidence not only that El Niño will develop, but that it could intensify as 2026 progresses. The agency cautioned that forecasts made during the northern hemisphere spring are typically less certain than at other times of the year, but said current model guidance is increasingly aligned behind the likelihood of El Niño’s return. NOAA’s latest ENSO outlook similarly puts the chance of El Niño emerging in May–July 2026 at 61%, with persistence likely through at least the end of the year.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. Though cyclical and not caused by climate change, it can dramatically alter rainfall, temperature and storm patterns around the world. It is often associated with heavier rains in parts of southern South America, the Horn of Africa and some areas of North America, while bringing drier conditions to Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.
The WMO said forecasts for May through July 2026 point to above-normal land temperatures across most of the globe, with particularly strong warming expected in parts of North America, Europe and northern Africa. Scientists say the return of El Niño could again amplify already record-high global temperatures driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The agency has previously said that the combination of the last El Niño event and human-caused warming helped make 2024 the hottest year on record. For governments and industries, the warning is an early signal to prepare. The WMO said advance planning will be critical for sectors including agriculture, water management, energy and public health, all of which are highly vulnerable to shifts in rainfall and extreme heat.
