OPEC has trimmed its projection for global oil demand growth in 2025, citing rising global economic uncertainty driven by U.S. trade policies.
In its April Monthly Oil Market Report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries revised its 2025 forecast down from 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.3 million bpd. The group linked the adjustment to the economic impact of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” the group noted in the report.
Oil prices have also felt the pressure. OPEC’s reference crude basket dropped to $66.25 per barrel on Monday, down from $70.85 the previous Friday.
Amid these conditions, OPEC+—which includes Russia and other allies—reported a production drop in March by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd, largely due to output reductions by Nigeria and Iraq.
The latest figures come after eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held a virtual meeting on April 3 to review market conditions. They reaffirmed a gradual return of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary supply cuts beginning in April 2025.
For May, these countries will implement a production increase of 411,000 bpd, covering three months’ worth of planned increments. However, OPEC+ emphasized that this increase could be reversed depending on market developments.
“The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions,” the group stated, adding that flexibility is key to maintaining market balance.
OPEC+ members will reconvene on May 5 to review and potentially adjust June’s production levels.
