ABUJA — Nigeria’s external position weakened in 2025 as the country’s overall Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus fell 38.1% to $4.23 billion, down from $6.83 billion in 2024, according to provisional data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The CBN figures point to a year in which stronger gas exports and a new export stream from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery were not enough to fully offset lower crude-oil export receipts and a sharp retreat by foreign portfolio investors.
Current account still positive, but smaller
Nigeria’s current account surplus narrowed 26.2% to $14.04 billion in 2025, from $19.03 billion a year earlier. The CBN attributed the decline primarily to weaker crude export earnings, higher non-oil imports, and a wider services deficit.
Crude oil export earnings fell 14.4% to $31.54 billion (from $36.85 billion in 2024), even as gas exports rose 21.4% to $10.51 billion, cushioning the drop in oil revenue.
Within trade, the goods account posted a surplus of $14.51 billion, supported by refined petroleum exports from the Dangote Refinery of roughly $6 billion and a 28.9% reduction in fuel imports to $10.00 billion (from $14.06 billion). Separate CBN-based reports put the refinery’s refined exports at $6.13 billion or $5.85 billion, reflecting differences in reported breakdowns of the same provisional dataset.
The report also flagged $3.74 billion in crude oil imports linked to Dangote’s operations—an important structural shift even as domestic refining expands.
Capital flows flip: portfolio drops, FDI rises
On the financial account, the CBN data show a swing from a net lending position of $9.65 billion in 2024 to net borrowing of $1.69 billion in 2025—driven largely by a 48.3% fall in foreign portfolio investment inflows to $8.04 billion (from $15.55 billion).
By contrast, foreign direct investment climbed 149.1% to $4.01 billion (from $1.61 billion), suggesting firmer long-term positioning despite short-term risk aversion.
Services and income outflows widen
The services deficit deepened to $14.58 billion, while net out-payments on the primary income account surged 60.9% to $9.09 billion, which the CBN linked to higher dividend and interest payments to non-residents.
Despite the weaker overall BOP position, Nigeria’s external reserves rose 13.8% to $45.75 billion by year-end, providing a buffer as trade and capital flows adjust.
