Former U.S. President Donald Trump has once again shifted his position on the war in Ukraine, backing away from his prior pledge to end the conflict “in 24 hours” and now emphasizing that only Russia and Ukraine—possibly with help from the Pope—can negotiate peace.
This change follows a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, during which Trump posted optimistically on Truth Social, claiming both sides would “immediately start negotiations” toward a ceasefire. However, Russia’s stance appeared more measured, with Putin stating only that Moscow is open to drafting a “memorandum on a possible future peace agreement.”
Putin reiterated that any resolution must address the “root causes” of the war—a veiled reference to Ukraine’s Western alignment—suggesting that a quick peace deal remains unlikely. Despite Trump’s hopeful tone, the Russian position continues to focus on long-term strategic demands.
Trump’s Balancing Act
Although Trump expressed confidence in eventual peace—remarking, “Big egos involved, but I think something’s going to happen”—he also introduced uncertainty by acknowledging a personal “red line” and hinting he might back away from brokering peace efforts if talks fail to progress. “And if it doesn’t [happen], I’ll just back away and they’ll have to keep going,” Trump stated. Such remarks raise questions about the U.S.’s future role in the conflict, particularly as Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have also hinted at potential disengagement.
If the U.S. abandons the negotiation table, or ends military and intelligence support, it could tip the balance in Russia’s favor. The risk of U.S. withdrawal is not lost on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who warned: “It’s crucial for all of us that the United States does not distance itself from the talks and the pursuit of peace.”
Sanctions and Incentives
Trump is reportedly dangling sanctions relief, potential trade deals, and economic investment as incentives to persuade Russia toward peace—yet he has not discussed imposing new penalties, even after Russia launched its largest drone strike of the war on Ukrainian cities just hours after his call with Putin.
Outlook
Despite the rhetoric and apparent willingness to talk, substantive peace remains elusive. Ukraine and Russia may continue low-level diplomatic engagement, like last week’s delegation in Istanbul, but there’s no clear path yet toward a ceasefire or binding agreement. For now, Trump’s shifting narrative—and the uncertainty it brings—suggests that while diplomacy may resume, any lasting solution remains far from guaranteed.
