ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Ethiopia is heading toward a June 1 general election that analysts say is likely to be one of the least competitive in the country’s recent history, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party widely expected to retain power.
The vote comes five years after Abiy’s party won a landslide in the 2021 election, taking 485 of the 502 contested parliamentary seats. That election was disrupted by the civil war in Tigray and was not held in several areas because of insecurity and logistical problems. This year’s contest is again taking place against a backdrop of armed conflict, political fragmentation and restricted opposition activity.
Abiy, who came to power in 2018 promising democratic reforms, remains the dominant figure in Ethiopian politics. His government has presented the election as proof of institutional progress and national resilience after years of crisis. But opposition groups and political analysts argue that the space for genuine competition has narrowed sharply.
Several opposition parties have complained of arrests, harassment, limited access to media and difficulties organising rallies. Others have been weakened by internal divisions, boycotts or armed conflict in their home regions. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies warned earlier this year that the election would be shaped by conflict, ethnic polarisation and regional pressure, with fighting in parts of the country likely to inhibit voting.
Security remains one of the biggest challenges. Fighting has persisted in Amhara and Oromia, while tensions in Tigray have raised fears that the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement could unravel. Reuters reported last month that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front had moved to restore its pre-war administration, a step critics said could jeopardise the fragile peace in northern Ethiopia.
The economy is also under strain. Ethiopia has been pursuing major reforms, including opening its banking sector to foreign competition and liberalising the exchange-rate system, after securing support from international lenders. However, inflation, foreign-currency shortages and the economic impact of regional instability continue to weigh on households.
Critics say the election risks becoming more of a formal exercise than a meaningful contest. The Journal of Democracy described Ethiopia’s elections as increasingly “performative,” arguing that the 2026 vote is taking place in a political environment where real competition is severely constrained.
The government rejects claims that the process lacks credibility and says the National Election Board is working to administer the vote despite security challenges.
For Ethiopia, the election is less a question of who will win than whether the process can reduce tensions in a country still struggling with war, displacement, economic pressure and deep mistrust among political groups.
