Nigeria is projected to grow by 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027, the World Bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects update, upgrading its medium-term outlook as the country’s services sector expands and macroeconomic conditions stabilise.
In the World Bank’s forecast table for Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria’s growth is estimated to have edged up to 4.2% in 2025 and is expected to hold at 4.4% through 2027. The Bank’s latest projection represents an upgrade from the 3.7% growth forecast previously published in its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects round (often mis-stated as June 2026 in secondary reports).
According to reporting that quotes the World Bank’s January 2026 assessment, the improved outlook is expected to be driven by continued expansion in services—with particular strength in finance and ICT—alongside a rebound in agricultural output and a modest acceleration in non-oil industry. The Bank also points to ongoing tax-system reforms and prudent monetary policy as supportive of activity, investor sentiment and disinflation.
The World Bank further expects higher oil output to help offset softer international oil prices, supporting fiscal revenues and Nigeria’s external position. However, it cautioned that sustaining momentum will require addressing long-standing structural constraints, including weak institutional capacity and uneven enforcement of fiscal rules—factors that have historically amplified exposure to oil-price volatility.
The upgrade comes as the World Bank also described the global economy as “more resilient than anticipated,” projecting global growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, despite trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
For Nigeria, the Bank’s revised outlook will likely inform investor expectations and policy debates on how to consolidate reforms while broadening inclusive growth—especially through productivity gains, investment climate improvements, and sustained progress on inflation and fiscal credibility.
