A new Datafolha poll has shown Brazil’s presidential race locked in a dead heat, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a possible second-round run-off.
The survey, released on Saturday, put both Lula and Bolsonaro at 45 percent in a head-to-head contest. Another 9 percent of respondents said they would cast blank or null ballots, while 1 percent were undecided. Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters on May 12 and 13.
The result confirms a tightening race ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, having previously governed from 2003 to 2011 before returning to power in 2023. Bolsonaro, a senator from Rio de Janeiro and eldest son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro, is trying to inherit and consolidate his father’s right-wing political base.
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting to overturn his 2022 election defeat. Flávio Bolsonaro has said that, if elected, he would seek his father’s release, making the former president’s imprisonment a central issue in the campaign.
The poll was conducted mostly before a new controversy surrounding Flávio Bolsonaro gained national attention. The Intercept Brasil published leaked messages and documents alleging that Bolsonaro negotiated with banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of failed lender Banco Master, for about $24 million to help finance Dark Horse, a biographical film about Jair Bolsonaro. Reuters reported that Bolsonaro confirmed he had sought funding from Vorcaro, who was arrested in March on suspicion of leading a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme.
Bolsonaro denied wrongdoing, saying the request involved private sponsorship for a private film about his father and was unrelated to Vorcaro’s alleged crimes. The film project, reportedly set to star U.S. actor Jim Caviezel, has become a political liability, with left-wing lawmakers demanding an investigation.
The controversy adds to earlier pressure on Bolsonaro’s campaign. Since entering the race with his father’s blessing, he has faced questions over whether his candidacy is primarily a vehicle to secure Jair Bolsonaro’s freedom.
For Lula, the poll shows the challenge of winning another term amid economic pressure, fatigue with his leadership and a highly polarised electorate. For Bolsonaro, it confirms that the family’s political brand remains powerful despite Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction.
With both candidates tied months before the vote, Brazil appears headed for another bitter and closely fought presidential contest.
