The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has clarified that, contrary to public perception that food prices are dropping, the average cost of food items actually increased in October 2025 compared to September, even though the overall pace of inflation is slowing.
In its October 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the bureau explained that while year-on-year (YoY) figures suggest a sharp drop in food inflation, this is largely due to changes in how inflation is calculated, not because prices have fallen dramatically.
According to the NBS, food inflation stood at 13.12% YoY in October 2025, a sharp decline of 26.04 percentage points from 39.16% in October 2024.
“The significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year,” the agency noted.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, however, food inflation rose to -0.37% in October, up by 1.21 percentage points from -1.57% in September 2025, meaning the pace of price decreases slowed and some items became more expensive.
The NBS attributed the uptick in MoM food inflation to higher average prices of:
- Onions (fresh)
- Fruits such as oranges and pineapple
- Shrimp
- Groundnuts (unshelled)
- Vegetables (ugu, okazi leaf)
- Meat (goat meat, cow tail, liver), among others
Regional variations in food inflation
On a YoY basis, food inflation was highest in:
- Ogun – 20.85%
- Nasarawa – 19.96%
- Ekiti – 19.70%
The slowest rises in food prices were recorded in:
- Akwa Ibom – 3.98%
- Katsina – 4.15%
- Yobe – 4.29%
Month-on-month, October food inflation was highest in:
- Bauchi – 6.77%
- Abuja – 5.11%
- Niger – 4.84%
while some states actually saw declines in MoM food prices, including:
- Katsina – -7.72%
- Oyo – -5.89%
- Taraba – -4.89%
The NBS also reported that headline inflation eased to 16.05% in October 2025, down from 18.02% in September, a decline of 1.96 percentage points.
On a YoY basis, headline inflation was 17.82 percentage points lower than the 33.88% recorded in October 2024, again reflecting the impact of the revised base year.
Core inflation — which excludes food and energy — stood at 18.69% YoY in October 2025, down from 28.37% in October 2024.
Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa Limited said the disinflation trend was driven by a sharp moderation in food inflation to 13.1% YoY, supported by improved harvests and a firmer naira, while core inflation fell for the fourth consecutive month to its lowest level since February 2023.
